LSU
STEPHENSON DISASTER
MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE

⚡ POWERCAST

Power Outage Weather-based Emergency Response Casting & Anticipation System Tool
System Active
Last Updated: Feb 5, 2026 14:30 CST
⚠️

Active Tropical System: TS Test

Forecast models indicate potential landfall in SE Louisiana within 72 hours. Parish-level outage predictions updated every 6 hours.

📡 SELECT FORECAST SCENARIO

TS TEST - CURRENT TRACK
Advisory 12 • 72hr Forecast
CAT 2 AT LANDFALL
TEST - EASTERN SHIFT
10% Probability Scenario
CAT 2 AT LANDFALL
TEST - WESTERN SHIFT
15% Probability Scenario
CAT 3 AT LANDFALL
HISTORICAL: IDA 2021
Validation Comparison
CAT 4 AT LANDFALL

🗺️ LOUISIANA PARISH OUTAGE FORECAST

Predicted Outage Severity
Critical (>50%)
Warning (20-50%)
Moderate (5-20%)
Low (<5%)

📊 STATEWIDE SUMMARY

847K
Est. Customers Affected
18
Parishes Impacted
72-96
Est. Restoration (hrs)
$142M
Est. Economic Impact
Model Confidence 78%

🚨 HIGH RISK PARISHES

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🔬 MODEL INFORMATION

AlgorithmRandom Forest Ensemble
Training Events47 Hurricanes (2005-2024)
Validation R²0.76
Key FeaturesWind, Track, Soil, Veg/LAI
Data SourcesEAGLE-I, NHC, LPSC
Last TrainedJan 15, 2026